I took a closer look and further studied the events that
can unfold. We are living in an era and dreaming with open eyes, the kaal sarpa
yoga in Indias horoscope will have a long lasting effect with small bouts of
euphoria that will not last long.
The stocks I have accumulated in the last three years
virtually in all sectors have almost tripled, Tata steel and Sail have given me
the best of the profits ever, stocks like Adani, Bhel, Beml, VST, VA Tech too
have grown almost 3 times and I wish this bull run continues… refer my previous
blogs
http://rajeshmohandas.blogspot.in/2012/08/invest-in-telecom-sector-for-multi-fold.html
http://rajeshmohandas.blogspot.in/2012/06/you-have-not-missed-bus.html
I wish this bull-run continues and the markets go higher
and higher, unfortunately all wishes will not come true. Someday sooner or later there will be a catastrophic
event before 2015 and the markets will crash, this time the crash will be twice
the speed and people will not be able to recover from the crash. Go talk to
people who have lived thru the 2008 crash and burnt their fingers have not yet
recovered from the event, midcaps which lost their ground are yet to find
investors to buy afresh.
I am negative on the Indian economy, readers of this blog
may not agree, these are my views, and the rational for this hypothesis is the
outer planets again, I am not very sure about the timing… is that December 2014
or March 2015 or July 2015 etc… but sure there will be a downfall…
Many great traders of the past like George Bayer and W.D.
Gann relied on the repetition of past cycles to make their legendary forecasts.
Throughout history major conjunctions or planetary angles between the outermost
planets have coincided with great historical eras. Don’t forget what happened in
1880, 1930, 1944, 1965 and above all the 1990 across the globe right from
Depression to wars, unification, roits and dissolution.
Similarly the
more dangerous aspect is the square aspect which is a 90 degree angle between
two orbiting planets, which occurs with twice the frequency of the conjunction
during the orbital period. This produces a lot of friction, tension, inner
conflict, revolution, a new beginning and euphoric changes. Due to the long
orbital periods of the universal planets-(Uranus, Neptune and Pluto) these
conflicts are a long time in the making and when the planets involved start
applying a square, the conflict escalates to a crisis which are actually masked
by deception and when people realize there will be much more ill effects in the
society, who can forget the fall of so called great leaders like Hitler and Mussolini
who lead anarchy and chaos across the globe and brought in an hyperinflationary
scenario followed by a war and every time there was an influence of outer
planets which caused the deception and people assumed it to be a new beginning.
A very interesting
factor about the outer planets is the influences which tend to disconnect us
from the ego-centric reality with which we identify ourselves and
brush away all the negatives and start living in a virtual reality…. I agree
there is a change in Indian government and the hopes are very high, I am sure
Modi is a capable leader who has delivered in the past in Gujarat and all our
dreams can come true under his leadership. There are enamors challenges he will
face before the Indian economy stabilizes, and this wave in the market is all
about a future hope which is thoroughly FII and Operator driven and the prices
are sky rocketing without any change in the global economy.
The Euro
crisis is no more in the news, the Fed story is also brushed aside, what
happened to all other global negative sentiments, the crisis of Syria and
Middle east which tanked a lot of stocks are not being looked at, Russia-Ukraine
tension too is brushed aside, the Oil scarcity and the weakening rupee followed
by the subsidy burden and the fiscal deficit which was the only news on the
television few days before seems to be replaced by the victory of the second
largest democracy.
There is no significant
change in the India Inc. fundamentals, the second quarter results will prove this
point unless they are window dressed, our export import scenario is still under
recovery, the inflation still exists and perhaps the retail one is gone high in
the last few days, women security was another reason where the congress lost
and what has happened in the last couple of weeks is completely ignored and
people are still waiting for some magic to happen being far away from the
reality.
This is
exactly what happens when the outer planets influence, we start to live in an
illusionary world, Pluto represents Universal Power or Will, the creation,
destruction, regeneration and transformation of life while Uranus
adds fuel to the fire and suddenly there is a huge momentum that will gather.
The 2008
downturn was just a teaser, if you have been a long term investor you have
still not recovered into green on the stocks you are holding which were
purchased before 2008 unless you have heavily averaged them. The Stock Market
crash of Black Tuesday, October 29th, 1929 that lead to the economic collapse
and downturn followed by the world war had similar planetary alignments that we
are seeing now.
I looked back
at the history to study the Uranus Sq. Pluto and here are the summary of events
that took place…
- Uranus Square Pluto (1817- 1824): The economic expansion of the west ended and the foreclosures at the banks throughout the west failed, and foreclosures skyrocketed with a total surrender to the market forces. Back in India this was the period when there was the third Anglo-Maratha war, it was in the same period 1822 when the first Guajarati Newspaper was started.
- Uranus Square Pluto (1873- 1879): The economic downturn in 1873 was the first international depression and was experienced by both Europe and the United States post the industrial revolution. Back in India Bihar was hit by the worst famine ever, similar to various leaders visiting Modi’s swearing ceremony during this era was the Prince of Wales who visited India, in the year 1976 Queen Victoria was proclaimed “Empress of India”
- Uranus Square Pluto (1929-1941): The great depression followed by drought in the west, back in India Mother Teresa comes to Kolkotta, a new beginning of humanity, All India congress demand for Indian independence, The radical nationalists, led by Jawaharlal Nehru, push through the National Congress a resolution calling for virtual independence within a year, similar to the launch of Air Asia the JRD Tata Bombay flying club came into existence, this was the time when the Gandhi-Irwin pact happened, Aazad Encounter followed by hanging Bhagat Singh, Raj Guru and Sukhdev. Raise of terrorism in Bengal and third disobedience campaign was on the raise. Earth quake measuring 8.4 on the richter scale killed more than 10,000 people in along the Indo-Nepal boarder, and destroyed Quetta, the formation of All India Radio and roits in Bombay, Burma and Aden were separated from India as independent countries, there was a political deadlock in India while the World War 2 erupted in 1939, Muslim league demanded a separate homeland. In 1932 Franklin Roosevelt was elected and promised a "New Deal" with a series of Public Works programs. In 1935 the Social Security act was passed. But the U.S. could not get out of the depression until Pearl Harbor Day 1941 and its subsequent entrance into WWll.
- Uranus Square Pluto (2008- 2019): The current global financial crisis is considered by many economists to be the worst since the 30's. It resulted in the collapse of large financial institutions followed by bailouts. The first near exact square (within one degree) of Uranus and Pluto occurred on August 5th, 2011. At that time the markets plummeted as result of ECM Euro crisis. The rise and fall of optimism in India with Manmohan Singh taking tough stand on the nuclear deal. A series of scams unearthed, Social media playing significant role in the Indian politics, Out of the blue come Aravind Kejriwal and challenges the Congress shaking its roots in New Delhi. An anti-incumbency giving raise to the single largest party to decide the fate of Indian economy is just the mid-way of the Uranus Pluto cycle. It is always seen the mid-way of this cycle is usually optimistic with new and unexpected things happening with false economic breakout and people assuming all is going well and soon will be caught in a surprise when they see the Inflation not in control, women security still a challenge, GDP numbers unable to recover, Industrial expectations unmet, the Initial free bees of the government populist schemes fading away and the burden passed on to the common man, war like situation and raising tension across the borders, Markets under the clutches of the negativity and pessimism and end of 2019 people of India revisiting the elections in search of new face may be in Priyanka Gandhi to see something new shaping up again. The Indian horoscope is very badly affected by the Kaal Sarp Yog which will be a primary cause of volatility.In a nutshell if one has to summarize the above blog the key take away will be …
- Sell the scrips you hold and wait for the crash to renter
- High hopes in the newly elected govt. will stay for some more time before they fade away
- Priyanka Gandhi will rise as a new face for India Politics by the next election
- Markets will retrace back to 5500-6300 and will be there for some time before the new bull-run
- There will be natural disasters, rise of bad elements and national security threat, sea-saw journey in the markets with bouts of optimism and mostly in a bear grip
- Long terms investors can stop accumulating, sell and wait for a year and odd to accumulate again
- Traders can enjoy the wild swings both ways going long and short and keep pockets happy from a new moon to full moon cycle
