Showing posts with label stock market crash. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market crash. Show all posts

Monday, July 28, 2014

4 Blood Moons … Market Crash before the Mother of all Bull Runs



I am a very strong believer in the Moon phenomena which drives the market moods, though my extensive research is to draw equations and understand how the outer planets like Uranus, Neptune and Pluto  influence the markets it’s a proven fact that Moon rules the market cycles…. One can read my blog written in the past which has substantial data that proves every new moon day the markets are up and every full moon day the markets are down.
http://rajeshmohandas.blogspot.in/2011/12/moon-can-make-you-millionaire-every.html


What I want to highlight in this blog is about the influence of Blood Moon on Nifty. On April 15, 2014, there was a total lunar eclipse that started this Bull Run taking Nifty to almost 8000 levels. It was the first of four consecutive total eclipses in a series; known as a tetrad (the remaining three eclipses will take place on October 8, 2014, April 4, 2015, and September 28, 2015). It is one of eight tetrads during the 21st century AD. As with most eclipses, the moon appeared red during the April 15 eclipse. The red color is caused by Rayleigh scattering of sunlight through the Earth's atmosphere, the same effect that causes sunsets to appear red.
What should one expect in the near term…
  • Markets will continue an upward momentum and Nifty may breach 8000 mark before 8th October 2014 
  • There will be a small correction and consolidation phase till April 4th 2015 there will be extreme volatility with markets moving up and down with expectations of the next union budget and eyebrows raised on the ability for the Govt. to execute the promises made 
  • The downfall will start post April 4th 2015 and the broader markets will ignore this considering a smaller correction again but this is the beginning of the great collapse
  • On September 28th 2015 with the fourth blood moon there will be a total collapse and the biggest ever single day fall in the history of the markets that will surpass the days of Great depression don’t be surprised if the Nifty falls below 4500 mark after September 2015.
While the above pointers are based on the influence of moon, the outer planetary Uranus - Pluto square will be adding fuel to the fire to drag the markets down…
Don’t forget the movement of Saturn into Scorpio, the house of Mars which will be another trigger point for the unrest in the entire world, war like situations and drought will be more prominent in this kind of planetary alignment, inflation and unrest in the general will prevail in the air…
The strategy I am flowing is to currently pull off the investments from the markets and hold back, here and there continue trading and paly, but not long term… I will be more interested to accumulate gold which can reach a 50K mark per 10 Gms. by 2018 – 2020 timeframe.
2016 is the time to reinvest heavily when the entire mood is negative and the analysts shouting loud on every television channel to sell and run away and be patient for a couple of years to see the mother of all bull runs starting from 2018 onwards… by end of 2020 Nifty will touch 15,000 a decade from there Sensex is all set to reach 75,000 

Sunday, June 8, 2014

Will the Uranus Pluto Square pull the Nifty back to 5000 - 5500

I got it completely wrong on the Modi prediction tracking the outer planets in lieu with Sun instead of tracking Mars for the Pradhana Mantri role, and that’s exactly the power of Uranus and Pluto, it’s the most deceptive planet and so not a part of Vedic astrology, these are the planets that will need a little more attention and predicting the future based on them is risky, where people go wrong is the timing of events because they are very very slow moving ones.


I took a closer look and further studied the events that can unfold. We are living in an era and dreaming with open eyes, the kaal sarpa yoga in Indias horoscope will have a long lasting effect with small bouts of euphoria that will not last long.


The stocks I have accumulated in the last three years virtually in all sectors have almost tripled, Tata steel and Sail have given me the best of the profits ever, stocks like Adani, Bhel, Beml, VST, VA Tech too have grown almost 3 times and I wish this bull run continues… refer my previous blogs


http://rajeshmohandas.blogspot.in/2012/08/invest-in-telecom-sector-for-multi-fold.html
http://rajeshmohandas.blogspot.in/2012/06/you-have-not-missed-bus.html


I wish this bull-run continues and the markets go higher and higher, unfortunately all wishes will not come true.  Someday sooner or later there will be a catastrophic event before 2015 and the markets will crash, this time the crash will be twice the speed and people will not be able to recover from the crash. Go talk to people who have lived thru the 2008 crash and burnt their fingers have not yet recovered from the event, midcaps which lost their ground are yet to find investors to buy afresh.


I am negative on the Indian economy, readers of this blog may not agree, these are my views, and the rational for this hypothesis is the outer planets again, I am not very sure about the timing… is that December 2014 or March 2015 or July 2015 etc… but sure there will be a downfall…


Many great traders of the past like George Bayer and W.D. Gann relied on the repetition of past cycles to make their legendary forecasts. Throughout history major conjunctions or planetary angles between the outermost planets have coincided with great historical eras. Don’t forget what happened in 1880, 1930, 1944, 1965 and above all the 1990 across the globe right from Depression to wars, unification, roits and dissolution.


Similarly the more dangerous aspect is the square aspect which is a 90 degree angle between two orbiting planets, which occurs with twice the frequency of the conjunction during the orbital period. This produces a lot of friction, tension, inner conflict, revolution, a new beginning and euphoric changes. Due to the long orbital periods of the universal planets-(Uranus, Neptune and Pluto) these conflicts are a long time in the making and when the planets involved start applying a square, the conflict escalates to a crisis which are actually masked by deception and when people realize there will be much more ill effects in the society, who can forget the fall of so called great leaders like Hitler and Mussolini who lead anarchy and chaos across the globe and brought in an hyperinflationary scenario followed by a war and every time there was an influence of outer planets which caused the deception and people assumed it to be a new beginning.


A very interesting factor about the outer planets is the influences which tend to disconnect us from the ego-centric reality with which we identify ourselves and brush away all the negatives and start living in a virtual reality…. I agree there is a change in Indian government and the hopes are very high, I am sure Modi is a capable leader who has delivered in the past in Gujarat and all our dreams can come true under his leadership. There are enamors challenges he will face before the Indian economy stabilizes, and this wave in the market is all about a future hope which is thoroughly FII and Operator driven and the prices are sky rocketing without any change in the global economy.


The Euro crisis is no more in the news, the Fed story is also brushed aside, what happened to all other global negative sentiments, the crisis of Syria and Middle east which tanked a lot of stocks are not being looked at, Russia-Ukraine tension too is brushed aside, the Oil scarcity and the weakening rupee followed by the subsidy burden and the fiscal deficit which was the only news on the television few days before seems to be replaced by the victory of the second largest democracy.


There is no significant change in the India Inc. fundamentals, the second quarter results will prove this point unless they are window dressed, our export import scenario is still under recovery, the inflation still exists and perhaps the retail one is gone high in the last few days, women security was another reason where the congress lost and what has happened in the last couple of weeks is completely ignored and people are still waiting for some magic to happen being far away from the reality.


This is exactly what happens when the outer planets influence, we start to live in an illusionary world, Pluto represents Universal Power or Will, the creation, destruction, regeneration and transformation of life while Uranus adds fuel to the fire and suddenly there is a huge momentum that will gather.


The 2008 downturn was just a teaser, if you have been a long term investor you have still not recovered into green on the stocks you are holding which were purchased before 2008 unless you have heavily averaged them. The Stock Market crash of Black Tuesday, October 29th, 1929 that lead to the economic collapse and downturn followed by the world war had similar planetary alignments that we are seeing now.


I looked back at the history to study the Uranus Sq. Pluto and here are the summary of events that took place…

  1. Uranus Square Pluto (1817- 1824): The economic expansion of the west ended and the foreclosures at the banks throughout the west failed, and foreclosures skyrocketed with a total surrender to the market forces. Back in India this was the period when there was the third Anglo-Maratha war, it was in the same period 1822 when the first Guajarati Newspaper was started. 
     
  2. Uranus Square Pluto (1873- 1879): The economic downturn in 1873 was the first international depression and was experienced  by both Europe and the United States post the industrial revolution. Back in India Bihar was hit by the worst famine ever, similar to various leaders visiting Modi’s swearing ceremony during this era was the Prince of Wales who visited India, in the year 1976 Queen Victoria was proclaimed “Empress of India”
     
  3. Uranus Square Pluto (1929-1941): The great depression followed by drought in the west, back in India Mother Teresa comes to Kolkotta, a new beginning of humanity, All India congress demand for Indian independence, The radical nationalists, led by Jawaharlal Nehru, push through the National Congress a resolution calling for virtual independence within a year, similar to the launch of Air Asia the JRD Tata Bombay flying club came into existence, this was the time when the Gandhi-Irwin pact happened, Aazad Encounter followed by hanging Bhagat Singh, Raj Guru and Sukhdev. Raise of terrorism in Bengal and third disobedience campaign was on the raise. Earth quake measuring 8.4 on the richter scale killed more than 10,000 people in along the Indo-Nepal boarder, and destroyed Quetta, the formation of All India Radio and roits in Bombay, Burma and Aden were separated from India as independent countries, there was a political deadlock in India while the World War 2 erupted in 1939, Muslim league demanded a separate homeland. In 1932 Franklin Roosevelt was elected and promised a "New Deal" with a series of Public Works programs. In 1935 the Social Security act was passed. But the U.S. could not get out of the depression until Pearl Harbor Day 1941 and its subsequent entrance into WWll.
     
  4. Uranus Square Pluto (2008- 2019): The current global financial crisis is considered by many economists to be the worst since the 30's. It resulted in the collapse of large financial institutions followed by bailouts. The first near exact square (within one degree) of Uranus and Pluto occurred on August 5th, 2011. At that time the markets plummeted as result of ECM Euro crisis. The rise and fall of optimism in India with Manmohan Singh taking tough stand on the nuclear deal. A series of scams unearthed, Social media playing significant role in the Indian politics, Out of the blue come Aravind Kejriwal and challenges the Congress shaking its roots in New Delhi. An anti-incumbency giving raise to the single largest party to decide the fate of Indian economy is just the mid-way of the Uranus Pluto cycle. It is always seen the mid-way  of this cycle is usually optimistic with new and unexpected things happening with false economic breakout and people assuming all is going well and soon will be caught in a surprise when they see the Inflation not in control, women security still a challenge, GDP numbers unable to recover, Industrial expectations unmet, the Initial free bees of the government populist schemes fading away and the burden passed on to the common man, war like situation and raising tension across the borders, Markets under the clutches of the negativity and pessimism and end of 2019 people of India revisiting the elections in search of new face may be in Priyanka Gandhi to see something new shaping up again. The Indian horoscope is very badly affected by the Kaal Sarp Yog which will be a primary cause of volatility.
     
    In a nutshell if one has to summarize the above blog the key take away will be …

  1. Sell the scrips you hold and wait for the crash to renter
  2. High hopes in the newly elected govt. will stay for some more time before they fade away
  3. Priyanka Gandhi will rise as a new face for India Politics by the next election
  4. Markets will retrace back to 5500-6300 and will be there for some time before the new bull-run
  5. There will be natural disasters, rise of bad elements and national security threat, sea-saw journey in the markets with bouts of optimism and mostly in a bear grip
  6. Long terms investors can stop accumulating, sell and wait for a year and odd to accumulate again
  7. Traders can enjoy the wild swings both ways going long and short and keep pockets happy from a new moon to full moon cycle

Sunday, April 13, 2014

The fall of Nifty from 7000 to 5000 followed by a hung parliament




The social media wave under the influence of planet Neptune is riding waves and keeping the Venus happy driving an upbeat optimism in the market which will not last long.

Tomorrow (14th of April) there is a transit of planet Sun in Aries which will come under the influence of Rahu and Ketu… followed with the Full moon day and a lunar eclipse will be the early triggers which will be the starting point of the pessimism and people will be unwilling to accept it. The disbelief will continue for a couple more months till the election results will pop up.


BJP will emerge as a single largest party running short of few seats to prove the majority, the optimism will continue in the markets and may breach 7000 and move all the way up to 7250 - 7300 expecting the change and formation of the government which will shatter down and break all support levels and bleed into red when the most expected party will not be able to prove the majority and the Parliament will HANG.


Retrograding Mars and Saturn eyeing the planet Sun who will be influenced by Rahu will bring disaster. While the banking space will continue to go up due to Jupiter transit to Cancer again this will be short lived.


Out of the blue will appear Priyanka Gandhi or another Female candidate and the support from various smaller parties will give a new direction to the Indian politics. The surprise face of the new PM will send jitters to the market and bring back the nifty sharply down to 5500 - 5000 the FII flows will start eroding and the cash less market will go almost orphan till the new cabinet is formed.


The new financial policies will bring in fresh optimism and the up move may begin.  The market will continue to drift down because of the conflicts and uncertainties this new formed government will not stay longer and India will see a re-election in the year 2016. This will be favourable for BJP and still that’s not the good news… bad clouds on India seem to drift only for few months and the markets will react positively only for some time to see a war like situation arising in 2017-2018


The above predictions are based on the study of the outer planets (Uranus, Neptune and Pluto) while in the short term the influence of Jupiter, Saturn and Mars with the negative influence of Rahu and Ketu will keep the Sea Saw journey in the market accepting the king of the planets SUN and people will run short of the logic due to the influence of fast moving Mercury and Moon will keeps the minds guessing.


I see the pessimism to continue till 2018 and once the influence of Uranus and Pluto subsides the markets up move will start. Year 2025 will see Nifty at 10000 mark and it’s time to slowly accumulate good quality stocks systematically. The defensives will continue to be the favourites and stocks which are not influenced by the government policy will see a lot of action. IT will also see benefits because of the weakening rupee which will be safe bets in the near future.

Friday, November 1, 2013

Neither Modi … Nor Rahul… a new face will emerge as Indian Prime minister




Turn on any news channel there is only one thing that pops up every 15mins … NAMO or RAGA… while this is on the earthly plane the starts in the sky are indicating something very different… gods in the haven have decided to slime on someone else and shy away with both  strong candidates.

Studying the Indian horoscope (15 Aug 1947, 00:01 AM, Delhi) coming years will be filled with ambiguity and face a relentless cycle of ups and downs that will swing wildly between hope and despair. It is stressful and disheartening to both bulls and bears where each one will hope to see the market today as a glass half full or half empty and eagerly await how the political scenario will shape up.

While there is a mass hysteria created that BJP will emerge as favourites based on the exit poll outcomes the stars show strength the other way. Congress carries more support from the havens and planets are swaying towards the congress leaders.

Planet Neptune which rules the social media space is the one which is favouring BJP and so the television channels, twitter tweets, Facebook forwards, YouTube snippets are all active with NAMO while on the other hand planet Saturn is all preparing itself to move from Libra to Scorpio in few months and by the end of elections Saturn will be in its last lag of Libra and will start a journey afresh in Scorpio that is ruled by Mars.

Most of the astrologers who track market are predicting a bull run from June 2014 Jupiter will transit Cancer ... its exhalation sign but they miss the most important factor which is PLUTO SQUARE JUPITER and because of this we will face a lot of issues... between 1930 and 1935 the world has witnessed the havoc caused by this square where Uranus too played its part and the starts are showing similar signs in the sky. Keeping fingers crossed over an unrealistic optimism for the Nifty to break all time high of 6350 and shoot sharply to cross 8000 mark by mid next year for the very reason Jupiter is moving towards is exhalation sign of Caner and from 8000 mark Nifty will see a new high crossing 9000+ in coming two years if and only if Pluto and Uranus don’t play a spoil sport… there is a lot of data astrologically to see the kind of benefits Jupiter can show to the investors when transiting Cancer but very very less data to analyse the troubles that Pluto and Uranus can cause the markets fall badly and test 4800 again.

Studying the outer planets shows, no matter what Pluto / Uranus will do for sure Neptune will keep one and all excited with the news and euphoria that will be created by the social media, with mercury its Neptune which is making us all known and informed and playing a role of enabler connecting technology and people to match the pace with information.

Political turmoil is definitely on the cards, it will either be a hung parliament or will be formed by Congress or with the support of Congress again… there are chances out of blue will emerge a new face … may be PRIYANKA GANDHI...Aravind...Mayawati...  who can own the chair or is that someone else,  mercury being the neutral planet and its influence on the Indian horoscope and the aspects it is forming is making me confident in the near term there will be a female face that will rule India as a new PM and definitely not Modi or Rahul…. and if at for some reason unknown Modi makes thru the govt. will surely not stand for its full term.

Friday, December 7, 2012

Markets will fall again (feb - mar 2013)

Mars and Saturn will cojoin in Feb-March 2013 and the evil eye of Uranas will cause rest of the disaster... The crash this time will be more horrible in nature and small investors especially invested in small and mid caps will face more trouble...

It’s time to book your profits and park the money in your bank accounts, don’t get greedy and start buying the markets have gone up only on news flow and speculations, there is no rational for this price to stay… with the new moon day approaching you may in the short term experience 6100 – 6300 levels and then there will be a big big big crash that will pull the markets down to 4200 – 4500 levels.
There is no fundamental reason for the prices to go up, current planetary position is deceiving and planets like Neptune and Pluto seem to be overshadowing and driving momentum in the minds and people are going crazy buying the market.
Look at Saturn; he is still sitting in the Libra and eyeing Mars and Jupiter.
Moon is equally playing on people mind and mercury has become dormant. That’s like mind is ruling without any logic. In astrology Moon is often related to Mind and Mercury stands for logic. Saturn is the debt and all countries are in the clutches of huge debt.
This rally may continue for a couple more months and after the next result cycle there will be sudden crash and one can see share prices as low as of 2011 and broader markets will be back at 4500.
The banking story is not yet over, inflation still remains the concern, growth that is shown is only on papers and media the lay man has not yet experienced the growth in real terms, Infrastructure is still sluggish. If one looks beyond astrology and eyes the technical we are at the last leg of the Elliot wave which will soon turn negative.
None the less stocks I had recommended on my blogs and on facebook have fetched at least 40% returns in the last 6 months duration. I have booked them off and if you are holding will suggest you to get out of them or you may book partial profits and switch to an eagle eye strategy… keep a eye on your favorite stocks and grab them back when  they are low.
Happy Trading… J